Short Bowel Syndrome (SBS) Sales Potential

It is massive!

Vurolenatide for SBS by the numbers

At the KOL Perspectives on Short Bowel Syndrome on March 23, 2021, John Temperato said the cost for a GLP-2 class drug for SBS was $40,000/month. (Timestamp 8:12) In addition the drug does not work very well. This is one of the most expensive drugs in the world, but there is no alternative. The CEO said they would be charging less for their drug. We will figure $30K/month.

He also stated there were 20,000 SBS patients in the US, and 20,000 in the EU. (Timestamp 6:45)

Here is the math assuming a 20% market pentation and similar ~$30,000/month (~$360k/year) cost for Vurolenatide.

US Sales:  4,000 x $360K/year = $1.4B per year

EU Sales:  4,000 x $300K/year = $1.2B per year (EU pays less for drugs)

Just the US and EU markets results in about a 2.6B market assuming a conservative 20% market penetration. We can safely add another $1B for ROW potential sales brining the total to $3.6B/year