Narsoplimab Sales Potential
mind blown...
HSCT-TMA
According to Omeros’ own estimate, annual allogeneic HSCT cases are 25,000-30,000 in the US and the EU. The incidence of TMA in this population is approximately 40%. Let’s say annual TMA cases are at 10,000. As an orphan drug for a life-threatening condition and due to the similarity, we can use Alexion Pharmaceuticals’ hefty price tag for its drug Soliris of $500,000/year as a reference point. On the conservative side, let’s put narsoplimab at $300,000/year – that’s $3 billion/year in revenue.
Remember, narsoplimab was given Orphan Drug designation not only for the treatment of TMA, but also for the prevention of it, and the number of patients taking this drug could be more than 10,000.
If we figure 15,000 total cases, annual revenue will be close to $4.5B. It is not hard to see Omeros as a $20-$25B market cap company, just for the HSCT-TMA market alone.
IgAN
There are approximately 300,000 people between the United States and Europe, not including Asia, which has a higher incidence rate. Given that there is no currently approved treatment, there would be ample room for narsoplimab to be used in a significant portion of patients. If we assume that only 10% of patients will use OMS721, that leads to approximately 30,000 individuals between the United States and Europe. If we take the same pricing from HSCT-TMA, $300,000, that would yield a potential market of $9B. Keep in mind that that number does not include the market potential in Asia, and estimates could be significantly higher as the company comes closer to filing for approval.
aHUS
aHUS would likely have a market potential around position: absolute; billion based on current sales by Soliris and using the previous $250,000 price point. This would likely be the slowest growing indication as Omeros would have to compete against Soliris, which has a much longer history of treatment than OMS721 for aHUS.